Investors’ Fee Advice10.07.09

For a fee, newsletter writers rate individual stocks and funds. Most newsletter writers are optimistic sorts who like to predict ever-rising stock prices. A few are perennial bears. Newsletters sell from $60 a year to more than $1,000. The higher priced newsletters claim to have better information.

Newsletter writers on a hot streak sell more copy; some become household names for a few years until their streak runs out. Extensive studies of newsletters show less than 20 percent outperform the market. Higher priced newsletters are no more accurate than cheap newsletters. Most newsletters die within a few years of sending out their first batch of predictions.

Investors looking for certainty in an unpredictable market turn to newsletters. Their authors become gurus. Many a fortune has been lost along the way. The gold bug gurus of 1975-1980 continued to recommend half or more of a portfolio in gold throughout the 1980s as gold lost more than 65 percent of its value.

Investors who choose among newsletter recommendations and supplement newsletter research with their own research will benefit. One or two good picks can be worth the price of a subscription. On the other hand, as a newsletter subscriber, you may believe you are in an exclusive club with special knowledge about the market. This sense of grandiosity can be hazardous to your financial and mental health.

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Alternatives to mutual funds08.28.09

For discouraged investors, other products are available. Closed-end funds (CEFs) are mutual funds that are sold on the exchanges like stocks. Openend mutual funds are sold directly to investors; every dollar invested adds to the assets under management and management fees. After an initial public offering to raise capital, CEFs are bought and sold between investors at whatever price investors are willing to pay. The price of a CEF can be higher or lower than the value of the stock held by the fund. CEF managers are only able to offer new shares if returns have been good and the fund becomes popular. However, the prices of CEFs are volatile.

Closed-end funds are subject to mass psychosis. When certain stocks are hot, CEFs owning those stocks can sell for several times net asset value (NAV). Investors often experience overconfidence and grandiosity. When these stocks are unpopular, CEFs plunge to a fraction of NAV. When CEFs linger below NAV for long periods of time, frustration sets
in. Often shareholder suits are filed to open up the fund and distribute assets at NAV. CEFs are also subject to management changes and style changes. In addition, CEFs are often taken over by outside management companies and converted into larger funds. Spreads and commissions on CEFs are often painful. Closed-end funds are outside the comfort zone of most mutual fund investors.

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Finances and U.S. Taxes and Fiscal Policy04.28.09

It would seem that an effective tax policy is part of the foundation on which prosperity must rest. A wise state invests in security, infrastructure, education, public health, and even basic research when they are value-adding propositions. Taxes are needed to finance these investments. But it is not only the amount of taxes extracted from the economy but how they are extracted that counts, for the tax code will play an enormous role in investment decisions, and not all tax codes favor value creation.

The state also has the potential to destroy economic value through unwise expenditures. Indeed, because economics is only one criterion in developing public policy, a state will always do some of both. Let us consider some of the issues.

Broadly speaking, governments derive taxes from consumption, income, and wealth. These taxes can be leveled on individuals or on organizations. Generally, all of these sources are taxed in some way.

One of the most fundamental tax issues is whether to rely first on consumption taxes or on income and wealth taxes. The choice is of great importance to investors, who would be motivated to invest more if taxes were lighter at the income or wealth level and primarily levied at the point of consumption. Increased funds available for investment would also reduce the cost of capital and thus the ability of projects to create value.

Typical consumption taxes include sales taxes and the valueadded tax (VAT) prevalent in Europe. Consumption taxes are, however, inherently regressive, falling relatively heavily on the poor. Hence, U.S. society in effect creates incentives to consume and relative disincentives to invest by favoring personal income taxes as its primary source of tax collection.

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Finances and Soft Delinquency Triggers04.27.09

Soft delinquency triggers dynamically link credit enhancement to deal performance. There are two types of soft delinquency triggers. The first is asoft trigger based on the credit enhancement of the senior certificates. This trigger specifies a target value for delinquencies as a percentage of the senior certificate’s enhancement. This type of trigger mostly protects the senior bondholders. However, as the senior classes pay down, the credit enhancement to those classes increases and the trigger becomes mechanically weaker, to the point that it may no longer be effective.  Under the higher prepayment scenarios, the delinquency threshold increases faster than under slower prepayment scenarios.

The second type of soft delinquency trigger is based on the credit enhancement of the most senior outstanding bond. This kind of delinquency trigger will not step down if serious delinquencies exceed a target level that is tied to the credit enhancement available for the most senior outstanding class. The structure of this trigger partly addresses the weakness of the delinquency trigger discussed previously.

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Finances and Borrower Risk Grade04.26.09

Lower credit grade borrowers exhibit higher risk multipliers relative to the baseline (risk grade AA). This is due to the “credit curing effect.” Credit curing refers to the improvement in a borrower’s credit score or profile as the borrower makes and maintains a schedule of timely payments. As the borrower’s credit improves, he or she could become eligible for a prime or near-prime loan with a favorable rate relative to a subprime loan. As a result, the borrower is “in-the-money” and faces a positive economic incentive to refinance.

The credit curing effect increases as the borrower’s risk grade declines. This is because the lowest risk grade borrowers (C, CC) are paying the highest rates and, as a result, realize the greatest economic benefit from credit curing.

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FINANCES AND LIQUIDITY CONSIDERATIONS04.23.09

CDOs gained a bad reputation of being extremely illiquid when the product was first introduced. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that new investors question the depth of the secondary markets. When the credit markets hit bottom in 2002, secondary trading in CDOs began to proliferate.

Most dealers now have secondary trading desks and make markets in each others’ transactions. As a result, bid-ask spreads have narrowed substantially since early 2000.

Clearly, the narrowest bid-ask spreads are found at the top of the capital structure. In 2006, however, even equity bid-ask spreads (particularly for CLO equity) narrowed. As with all financial products, liquidity evaporates during periods of high volatility.

We believe equity investors should assume they are buying to hold, and any liquidity they receive should be viewed as a bonus. As for note investors, the key to avoiding a liquidity crunch is to stick to straightforward, easyto-model CDOs. Third-party software has been instrumental in helping secondary trading desks make a market in each others’ deals. If the structure is too esoteric, however, it may not make it into the vender’s database. In that case, an investor would most likely only have the underwriter to turn to when it comes time to sell.

The growth of the credit default CDO (CDCDO) market should, in the long run, continue the trend toward a more liquid secondary market. It could also lead to a few traffic bumps in the short term. A CDS contract requires one party to go long the risk, while another is effectively short. This fact alone opens the door to speculators who help provide liquidity, but who also increase market volatility. Higher market volatility leads to wider bid-ask spreads.

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Online Banking: recognize and avoid hazards09.26.08

Online banking has clear advantages: they are independent of opening times and can be all sorts of transactions quickly and conveniently in order. But the popularity of online banking also attracts criminals to: Often, consumers receive e-mails with an invitation to a site via clickable link their bank access their personal information. The no circumstances should you do, because the basis of these data can be the unauthorized online account easily plunder.

Respect for online banking Trojans

Also very dangerous are so genannnte Trojans, in secretly creep into your PC. You catch your access data unnoticed and guided them further. So never open e-mails unknown senders and protect your computer necessarily with a current antivirus software.

ITAN, Etan and procedures HBCI

So that the abuse risk is low, some banks have your transaction methods converted. In the so-called iTAN procedures must, for example, after you input your PIN is not any TAN number from the list, but each of the Bank provided certain number. Even safer (but not yet so often applied) are ETAN HBCI or procedures. In both
procedures, the account holder is an electronic device made available, which his identity when online banking tamper-proof confirmed.

So you should act in case of damage

As a precautionary measure against abuse in online banking you must access your data safe place. Keep your PIN and TAN data separately and not save it on your hard drive. You should also difficult to guess passwords choose not to transfer the case from publicly accessible computers active and regularly check your bank statements. If you find irregularities, put your best coincide with your bank in connection and block online access through three entry of a wrong PIN. Then you can ask the police to report. So you have the best prospects, the damage from your bank to get reimbursed.

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Patronage Websites09.26.08

The following websites are under our patronage:

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